A Pivotal Moment in American Politics

From left: Photo by Charlie Neibergall/AP. Photo by Alex Brandon/AP.

The 2024 U.S. presidential election

By Paul Natinsky

If recent polls and elections are a guide—and, really, what else do we have? —the coming presidential election features fairly even splits supporting Vice President Kamala Harris and Former President Donald Trump, with a small group of undecided voters in the middle. A more decisive issue might be how many supporters in each camp—and the middle—decide to stay home versus coming out to the polls.

“Here’s what’s going to happen, the bottom line is that it’s going to depend on who stays home and who shows up at the ballot. This is not a crossover vote, this is who can get their people to the polls,” said veteran pollster Ed Sarpolus from Target Insyght.

“The problem now is that you’ve got a lot of people who may not vote for president—they’ll skip the top of the ticket and vote on the rest of the ballot.”

Sarpolus says Trump’s strategy will be to keep independent voters who lean toward supporting Harris on their couches come election day.

“Here’s what Trump’s doing. He knows he tops out in the voting at 47%. He has a peak. He knows he has to suppress votes. Suppress votes, that’s his only job.

“He’s basically got to get those independents and those Democrats saying, ‘Yeah Harris is a weak person. She’s a woman. She’s the wrong gender, the wrong color. She’s one of those immigrant types.’ They’re not going to vote for him, but they’re going to stay home and not vote for her.”

Below is an overview of key issues in the campaign, with an emphasis on issues that affect this newspaper’s readership most directly.

Economy and Taxes

Harris has said her top priority would be trying to reduce food and housing costs for working families.

She promises to ban price-gouging on groceries, help first-time home buyers and provide incentives to increase housing supply.

Harris wants to raise taxes on big businesses and Americans making $400,000 a year.

But she has also unveiled a number of measures that would ease the tax burden on families, including an expansion of child tax credits.

Harris will be tied to the Biden economic agenda, but she has begun to offer some ideas of her own – primarily an emphasis on family-friendly topics such as paid leave and childcare support. In general, she has shown support when she was in the Senate for more progressive economic policies and could well appoint some more liberal-leaning candidates when vacancies arise.

Trump has promised to end inflation and make America affordable again.

He has promised to deliver lower interest rates and he says deporting undocumented immigrants will ease pressure on housing.

Trump’s first turn in office was marked by a huge tax cut, deregulation of industry and trade wars with economic competitors – most notably China. Trump proposes a number of tax cuts worth trillions, including an extension of his 2017 cuts. He says he will pay for them through higher growth and tariffs on imports.

Specifically, he has said he favors lowering the corporate income tax rate to 15% from 21%, advocates for a much broader, across-the-board 10% tariff on imported goods, and promises to reverse a lot of the green energy subsidies and mandates that the Biden administration has championed. He has also promised to take care of inflation and lower interest rates, which the Fed controls, but has not said how he would do this.

Analysts say both tax plans will add to the ballooning deficit.

Energy and Environment

Harris and Trump offer starkly different visions regarding energy and environmental policy, reflecting their respective party ideologies.

Harris champions a comprehensive approach to combat climate change, emphasizing the transition to renewable energy sources like solar and wind. She advocates for bold legislation, such as the Green New Deal, aimed at achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Harris believes that investing in clean energy can create millions of jobs while protecting the environment, addressing both climate issues and economic inequality.

Trump prioritizes energy independence and economic growth over environmental regulations. His administration rolled back numerous environmental protections, arguing that such regulations hinder job creation and harm the economy. Trump supports the use of fossil fuels, including coal, oil, and natural gas, and promotes initiatives like deregulating drilling and mining activities to boost domestic energy production. He often downplays the urgency of climate change, focusing instead on what he sees as the immediate benefits of traditional energy sources.

These conflicting approaches highlight a broader debate in U.S. policy: Harris’s commitment to sustainability and climate action versus Trump’s emphasis on energy independence and economic pragmatism, shaping the future of America’s environmental landscape.

Immigration

Harris was assigned to tackle the root causes of the southern border crisis and helped raise billions of dollars of private money to make regional investments aimed at stemming the flow north.

Record numbers of people crossed from Mexico at the end of 2023 but the numbers have fallen since. In this campaign, she has taken a stronger position and emphasized her experience as a prosecutor in California taking on human traffickers.

Trump has vowed to seal the border by completing the construction of a wall and increasing enforcement. But he urged Republicans to ditch a hardline, cross-party border bill, backed by Harris.

He has also promised the biggest mass deportation of undocumented migrants in US history.

In The End Analysis

Regardless of whether the election hinges on voter turnout, top-of-the-ticket skipping, gender bias or any other obscure or common-sense factor, this is going to be a close contest.

Trump’s message hasn’t really changed much and has proven difficult for Republican strategists to mold. A near-consensus of analysts predict his base will be solid and immune to being swayed by his statements and antics.

If Trump is defeated, major questions about the Republican Party’s future push their way to the front as scores of disaffected former Republican politicians, bureaucrats and party officials wait on the sidelines.

For Harris, the picture is a bit more complicated. In addition to questions about race and gender bias, Harris has to differentiate herself from President Joe Biden and defend a move toward the center after her tenure as a legislator that featured cooperation with far-left pols and espousing progressive proposals.

The Democratic Party’s base is also in flux, with a growing image as an elitist party with an increasing focus on women’s issues. Challenges to gain and keep male voters—especially Black male voters—will be key to keeping the White House.

The rocky and unpredictable ride to the election might be only the beginning of a jarring journey that continues after votes are counted a few weeks from now, with both parties revisiting their core principles and long-held policies.